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Effects of Global Climate Change on Natural Resources [Jump to publications]

Our research in global change focuses on the potential impacts of climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest, especially on high-altitude systems in national parks and other public lands. Currently, most predictions and models of forest response to climate change are based on data from low-altitude forests.

This program has been evolving over several years of research. What we might call Phase I has consisted of empirical research focusing on climate change impacts on ecosystem processes such as tree growth and regeneration, carbon storage and soil properties in high elevation areas (see below for more information). In Phase II of our global change research, we're moving into large scale modeling of ecosystem dynamics as affected by climate over space and time. This project is called Climate-Landscape Interactions on a Mountain Ecosystem Transect, or CLIMET.

Empirical Studies on Global Climate Change
Due to extreme environmental conditions at high altitudes, the growth and distribution of subalpine tree species is strongly limited by precipitation and temperature, making them an appropriate subject for analysis of responses to climate. Regeneration of tree species is also very responsive to climatic patterns, and it ultimately determines the distribution and abundance of vegetation in mountainous environments.

Recent studies conducted in the Olympic Mountains show quite a different view of forest response to climate change than is found in existing literature on low-elevation systems. Tree growth response to winter precipitation is negatively correlated with growth, and is considerably more important than temperature. Similarly, winter precipitation is the most important variable affecting tree regeneration in the subalpine zone. Although most climate change scenarios and modeling emphasize how temperature changes would affect ecosystems, this work clearly shows that precipitation patterns will have a greater impact than temperature on subalpine forests during the next century.

FAME Lab scientists have conducted extensive studies on the potential impacts of climate change on tree growth, tree regeneration and soil carbon storage in subalpine forest ecosystems. Studies have been conducted on the response of tree growth to climate for: subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), mountain hemlock, (Tsuga mertensiana), and other subalpine species in the Olympic and Cascade Mountains. A consistent sample was obtained at all sites by coring trees at 3 locations along an elevation gradient: (1) treeline, (2) mid-elevation, and (3) the lowest extent of the subject species distribution. All sampling was done in national parks and national forests. Tree cores were measured, and subjected to time-series analysis and other statistical analyses in conjunction with climatic datasets. Analysis indicates that for subalpine tree species at most locations, winter precipitation (primarily snow) has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations (which have more precipitation). Temperature also affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Precipitation generally has a greater impact than temperature on growth. Furthermore, the lack of uniform response across elevation gradients suggests that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations on the landscape: a uniform response of these species to climate change is unlikely.

Studies of regeneration of subalpine tree species were conducted in Olympic National Park (subalpine fir, Pacific silver fir (Abies amabilis), mountain hemlock and Mount Rainier National Park (subalpine fir). Demography of regenerating trees was quantified with respect to established mature populations. Different age classes were statistically compared with climatic data to determine how long-term climatic patterns affect tree establishment. It was determined that appropriate climatic conditions for regeneration vary by species and by local climate (e.g., wetter vs. drier). Regeneration is also strongly associated with convex landforms and ericaceous vegetation types. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many locations. This pattern of establishment and movement of treeline with respect to climatic patterns during the Holocene was documented in an extensive review of ecological and paleoecological literature.

Studies on soil carbon storage were conducted in 2 study areas, each having 3 study sites, in the Olympic Mountains: (1) northeast--low precipitation, dominated by subalpine fir forest and grass-sedge meadows, (2) southwest--high precipitation, dominated by mountain hemlock forest and ericaceous meadows. Soil profiles (36 total) were described and sampled in each study area, and physical and chemical properties of the profiles were analyzed. Soil carbon concentrations in the mineral-soil fraction are very high compared to most lower-elevation forests in the region, and are high deep in the soil profile in many cases. Carbon storage is generally higher in the southwestern Olympic forest soils, which are dominated by spodosols and a thicker organic horizon. Northeastern meadow soils have more carbon than northeastern forest soils. Soils in subalpine ecosystems clearly have a large capacity for carbon storage, although storage could decrease if future climate is warmer and drier. Increased fire disturbance would reduce aboveground and probably long-term belowground carbon storage.

This program lies within the larger context of the USGS Global Change Research in Biology Program. A project directory of current and recently completed projects in the BRD program is available.
Global Climate Change Publications

McKenzie, D., S.M. O’Neill, N. Larkin, and R.A. Norheim. 2005. How will climatic change affect air quality in parks and wilderness? In: D. Harmon, ed. Proceedings of the George Wright Society Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, PA, in press.

McKenzie, D., Z.M. Gedalof, D.L. Peterson, and P. Mote. 2004. Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology 18:890-902.

McKenzie, D., D.W. Peterson, D.L. Peterson, and P.E. Thornton. 2003. Climatic and biophysical controls on conifer species distributions in mountain forests of Washington State, USA. Journal of Biogeography 30:1093-1108.

Sanscrainte, C.L., D.L. Peterson and S. McKay. 2003. Carbon storage in subalpine tree islands, North Cascade Range, Washington. Northwest Science 77(3).

Edmonds, R.L., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, and D.L. Peterson. 2001. Sources of climatic variability in river ecosystems. In R.C. Wissmar and P.A. Bisson (eds.), Strategies for Restoring River Ecosystems: Sources of Variability and Uncertainty in Natural and Managed Systems. American Fisheries Society. In press.

Fagre, D.B. and D.L. Peterson. 2001. Modeling and monitoring ecosystem responses to climate change in three North American mountain ranges. In C. Körner and E. Spehn (eds.), Global Mountain Biodiversity: Changes and Threats. Springer-Verlag, Berlin. In press.

McKenzie, D., A. Hessl, and D.L. Peterson. 2001. Recent growth in conifer species of western North America: assessing the spatial patterns of radial growth trends. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31:526-538.

Rochefort, R. M., and D. L. Peterson. 2001. Genetic and morphologic variation in Phyllodoce empetriformis and P. glanduliflora (Ericaceae) in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington. Canadian Journal of Botany 79:179-191.

McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and J.K. Agee. 2000. Fire frequency in the Interior Columbia River Basin: building regional models from fire history data. Ecological Applications 10:1497-1516.

Avalos, C.D., D.L. Peterson, E. Alvarado, S.A. Ferguson. 2000. Space-time modelling of lightning-caused forest fires in the Blue Mountains, Oregon. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. In press.

Cooper, S.M. and D.L. Peterson. 2000. Tropospheric ozone distribution in western Washington. Environmental Pollution 107:339-347.

Fagre, D.B. and D.L. Peterson. 2000. Ecosystem dynamics and disturbance in mountain wildernesses: assessing vulnerability of natural resources to change. In D.N. Cole and S.F. McCool (eds.), Wilderness Science in a Time of Change. USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-000. Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT. In press.

McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and J.K. Agee. 2000. Spatial variation in fire frequency in the Interior Columbia River Basin. Pages 257-263 in L.F. Neuenschwander and K.C. Ryan (eds.), Proceedings of the 1999 Joint Fire Science Conference and Workshop. University of Idaho, Moscow.

Peterson, D.L. 2000. Monitoring air quality in mountains: designing an effective network. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 64:81-91.

Peterson, D.W. and D.L. Peterson. 2000. Regional growth responses and climatic limitations of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana). Ecology. In press.

Prichard, S.J., D.L. Peterson, and R.D. Hammer. 2000. Soil carbon storage in subalpine forest ecosytems of the Olympic Mountains. Soil Science Society of America Journal 64:1834-1845.

Tang, K., X. Feng, and G.J. Ettl. 2000. The variations in dD of tree rings and tie implications for climatic reconstruction. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 64:1663-1673.

Tilman, D., P. Reich, H. Phillips, M. Menton, A. Patel, E. Vos, D. Peterson, and J. Knops. 2000. Fire suppression and ecosystem carbon storage. Ecology 81(10): Woodward, A. 1998. Relationships among environmental variables and tree species distribution at high elevations in the Olympic Mountains. Northwest Science 72:10-22.

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Arbaugh, M.J., D.L. Peterson, and P.R. Miller. 1999. Air pollution effects on growth of ponderosa pine, Jeffrey pine, and bigcone Douglas-fir. Pages 179-207 in P.R. Miller and J. McBride (eds.), Oxidant Air Pollution Impacts in the Montane Forests of Southern California: The San Bernardino Mountains Case Study. Springer-Verlag, New York.

Gavin, D. and L.B. Brubaker. 1999. A 6000-year soil pollen record of sub-alpine meadow vegetation in the Olympic Mountaians, Washington, USA. Journal of Ecology 87:106-122. Gavin, D.G., J.S. McLachlan, L.B. Brubaker, and K.A. Young. 2001. Postglacial history of subalpine forests, Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA. The Holocene 11:177-188.

McKenzie, D. and C.B. Halpern. 1999. Modeling the distributions of shrub species in Pacific Northwest forests. Forest Ecology and Management 114:293-307.

Peterson, D.L., D. Bowers, and S. Brace. 1999. Tropospheric ozone in the Nisqually River drainage, Mount Rainier National Park. Northwest Science 73:241-254.

Peterson, D.L., D.G. Silsbee, and K.T. Redmond. 1999. Long-term hydrological patterns at Crater Lake, Oregon. Northwest Science 138:121-130.

Zolbrod, A.N. and D.L. Peterson. 1999. Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 29:1966-1978.

Brace, S. and D.L. Peterson. 1998. Tropospheric ozone distribution in the Mount Rainier region of the Cascade Mountains, U.S.A. Atmospheric Environment 32:3629-3637.

Campbell, J. and D. Peterson. 1998. Vegetation and landform database development. Park Science 17:18-19.

McKenzie, D. 1998. Fire, vegetation, and scale: toward optimal models for the Pacific Northwest. Northwest Science 72 (Special Issue):49-65.

Miller, E.A. and C.B. Halpern. 1998. Effects of environment and grazing disturbance on tree establishment in meadows of the central Cascade Range, Oregon, USA. Journal of Vegetation Science 9:265-282.

Peterson, D.L. (tech. ed.). 1998. Large-Scale Fire in Pacific Northwest Ecosystems. Northwest Science 72 (Special Issue).

Peterson, D.L. 1998. Climate change: potential impacts on biological systems. Pages 135-136 in P.Calow (ed.), The Encyclopedia of Ecology and Environmental Management. Blackwell Science, London.

Peterson, D.L. 1998. Climate, limiting factors and environmental change in high-altitude forests of western North America. Pages 191-208in M. Benistion and J.L. Innes (eds.), Climatic Variability and Extremes: The Impact on Forests. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg.

Peterson, D.L. 1998. Large-scale fire disturbance: from concepts to models. Northwest Science 72 (Special Issue):1-3.

Peterson, D.L. and V.T. Parker. 1998. Dimensions of scale in ecology, resource management, and society. Pages 499-522 in D.L. Peterson and V.T. Parker (eds.), Ecological Scale: Theory and Applications. Columbia University Press, New York, NY.

Peterson, D.L. and V.T. Parker (eds.). 1998. Ecological Scale: Theory and Applications. Columbia University Press, New York, NY.

Crawford, G.B. and R.W. Collier. 1997. Observations of a deep mixing event in Crater Lake, Oregon. Limnology and Oceanography 42:299-306.

Peterson, D.L., E.G. Schreiner, and N.M. Buckingham. 1997. Gradients, vegetation, and climate: spatial and temporal dynamics in mountains. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters 6:7-17.

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Brubaker, L.B. and J.S. McLachlan. 1996. Landscape diversity and vegetation response to long-term climate change in the eastern Olympic Peninsula, Pacific Northwest, USA. Pages 184-203 in B. Walker and W. Steffen (eds.), Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems. Cambridge University Press, London.

Dymond, J., R. Collier, J . McManus, and G. Larson. 1996. Unbalanced particle flux budgets in Crater Lake, Oregon: implications for edge effects and sediment focusing in lakes. Limnology and Oceanography 41:732-743.

McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and E. Alvarado. 1996. Extrapolation problems in modeling fire effects at large spatial scales: a review. International Journal of Wildland Fire 6:165-176.

McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and E. Alvarado. 1996. Predicting the effect of fire on large-scale vegetation patterns in North America. USDA Forest Service Research Paper PNW-489. Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR.

McManus, J., R. Collier, J. Dymond, C.G. Wheat, and G. Larson. 1996. Spatial and temporal distribution of dissolved oxygen in Crater Lake, Oregon. Limnology and Oceanography 41:722-731.

Rochefort, R.M. and D.L. Peterson. 1996. Temporal and spatial distribution of trees in subalpine meadows of Mount Rainier National Park. Arctic and Alpine Research 28:52-59.

Ettl, G.J. and D.L. Peterson. 1995. Extreme climate and variation in tree growth: individualistic response in subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). Global Change Biology 1: 231-241.

Ettl, G.J. and D.L. Peterson. 1995. Growth response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climate in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, USA. Global Change Biology 1: 213-230.

Graumlich, L.J. and L.B. Brubaker. 1995. Long-term records of growth and distribution of conifers: integration of paleoecology and physiology. Pages 37-62 in W.K. Smith and T.M. Hinckley (eds.), Ecophysiology of Coniferous Forests. Academic Press, San Diego.

Little, R.L., D.L. Peterson, D.G. Silsbee, L.J. Shainsky, and L.F. Bednar. 1995. Effects of climate on radial growth of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 25:724-735.

McLachlan, J.S. and L.B. Brubaker. 1995. Local and regional vegetation change on the northeastern Olympic Peninsula during the Holocene. Canadian Journal of Botany 73:1618-1627

Peterson, D.L. and D.R. Johnson (eds.). 1995. Human Ecology and Climate Change: People and Resources in the Far North. Taylor and Francis, Washington, DC.

Peterson, D.L. and D.R. Johnson. 1995. Human ecology and climate change at northern latitudes. Pages 3-13 in D.L. Peterson and D.R. Johnson (eds.), Human Ecology and Climate Change: People and Resources in the Far North. Taylor and Francis, Washington, DC.

Peterson, D.L. and D.R. Johnson. 1995. An action plan for an uncertain future in the Far North. Pages 317-322 in D.L. Peterson and D.R. Johnson (eds.), Human Ecology and Climate Change: People and Resources in the Far North. Taylor and Francis, Washington, DC.

Peterson, D.W. and D.L. Peterson. 1995. Climatic influences on radial growth of subalpine larch in the North Cascade Mountains. Pages 268-271 in W.C. Schmidt and K.J. McDonald (eds.), Ecology and Management of Larix Forests: A Look Ahead, Proceedings of an International Symposium. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report GTR-INT-319. Intermountain Research Station, Logan, UT.

Woodward, A., E.G. Schreiner, and D.G. Silsbee. 1995. Climate, geography, and tree establishment in subalpine meadows of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A. Arctic and Alpine Research 27:217-225.

Little, R.L., D.L. Peterson, and L.L. Conquest. 1994. Regeneration of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) following fire: effects of climate and other factors. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 24:934-944.

Peterson, D.L. 1994. Recent changes in the growth and establishment of subalpine conifers in western North America. Pages 234-243 in M. Beniston (ed.), Mountain Environments in Changing Climates. Routledge, London, UK.

Peterson, D.W. and D.L. Peterson. 1994. Effects of climate on radial growth of subalpine conifers in the North Cascade Mountains. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 24:1921-1932.

Rochefort, R.M., R.L. Little, A. Woodward, and D.L. Peterson. 1994. Changes in the distribution of subalpine conifers in western North America: a review of climate and other factors. The Holocene 4:89-100.

Woodward, A., D.G. Silsbee, E.G. Schreiner, and J.E. Means. 1994. Influence of climate on radial growth and cone production in subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) and mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana). Canadian Journal of Forest Research 24:1133-1143.

McManus, J. W.R. Collier, and J. Dymond. 1993. Mixing processes in Crater Lake, Oregon. Journal of Geophysical Research 98:18295-18307.

Peterson, D.L., A. Woodward, E.G. Schreiner, and R.D. Hammer. 1993. Global environmental change in mountain protected areas: consequences for management. Pages 29-36 in L.S. Hamilton, D.P. Bauer, and H.F. Takeuchi (eds.), Parks, Peaks, and People. East-West Center, Honolulu, HI.

McManus, J., R.W. Collier, C.-T. Chen, and J. Dymond. 1992. On the physical properties of Crater Lake, Oregon: determination of a conductivity and temperature dependent expression for salinity. Limnology and Oceanography 37: 41-53.

Peterson, D.L., M.J. Arbaugh, and L.J. Robinson. 1992. Tree growth in high elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Pages 269-273 in Proceedings of the International Conference on Tree Rings and the Environment, Ystad, Sweden. University of Lund, Lund, Sweden.

Ettl, G.J. and D.L. Peterson. 1991. Growth and genetic response of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) in a changing environment. The Northwest Environmental Journal 7:357-359.

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Little, R.L. and D.L. Peterson. 1991. Effects of climate on regeneration of subalpine forests after wildfire. The Northwest Environmental Journal 7:355-357.

Peterson, D.L. 1991. Sensitivity of subalpine forests in the Pacific Northwest to global climate change. The Northwest Environmental Journal 7:349-350.

Peterson, D.W. and D.L. Peterson. 1991. The response of tree growth to global climate change: subalpine forests of the North Cascade Mountains. The Northwest Environmental Journal 7:347-348.

Rochefort, R.M. and D.L. Peterson. 1991. Tree establishment in subalpine meadows of Mount Rainier National Park. The Northwest Environmental Journal 7:354-355.

Peterson, D.L., M.J. Arbaugh, L.J. Robinson, and B. Derderian. 1990. Growth trends of whitebark pine and lodgepole pine in a subalpine Sierra Nevada forest. Arctic and Alpine Research 22:233-243.

Fire and Mountain Ecology Lab   College of Forest Resources   University of Washington   Seattle WA   98195-2100
  http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme